Recent US labour market strength suggests a low recession risk, while supportive growth and earnings momentum keep us constructive on equities despite inflation risks.

Recent US labour market data supports our view that there is a low risk of a US recession, and our positive view of equities continues to be supported by earnings.

Stagflationary risks have increased following disruption in the Middle East, but resilient earnings momentum keeps us constructive on equities.

Rather than focusing on daily headlines and social media posts, investors need to view geopolitical shifts in a broader context.

We remain positive on equities, but the disruption to energy supplies caused by the Middle East conflict may persist longer than originally thought.

After the spike in oil prices, the outlook is more balanced from here – but that doesn't mean volatility is over. Find out more in our latest multi-asset views.